Men’s Final Four preview: How Auburn-Florida, Duke-Houston can win in San Antonio

Men’s Final Four preview: How Auburn-Florida, Duke-Houston can win in San Antonio

A showdown of the top two teams from the best conference in men’s college basketball. And a battle between the country’s best defense and a historically efficient offense.

There’s a reason it’s all chalk on the San Antonio River Walk for the March Madness finale — and our experts are here to break down how each team can win its Final Four matchup.

Read their analysis for Florida vs. Auburn and Duke vs. Houston, including fatal flaws and players each semifinalist will need to step up in the final stages of the 2025 NCAA tournament.

Jump to:
Auburn-Florida | Houston-Duke

end rule

Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET, CBS


How Florida reached the Final Four:

What we’ve learned about Florida in March: Florida’s run over the second half tells the story of this team’s season. Since Feb. 1, the Gators have lost only once: 88-83 at Georgia on Feb. 25. They have encountered more trouble than anticipated in recent weeks, but we’ve learned you can never assume they’re out of a game before it’s over.

Down late against back-to-back national champion UConn? They figured it out against the Huskies. Alex Condon sustaining an ankle injury against Maryland in the Sweet 16? They held on until the 6-foot-11 standout returned to close out the double-digit victory. And we all watched the furious comeback from a 10-point deficit in the final minutes against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. The Gators have five wins against top-20 KenPom teams by 14 or more points in March and refuse to quit against extreme adversity. What we’ve learned about them in March? They’re incredibly difficult to beat.

The player who needs to step up: Alex Condon.

After his shaky defensive effort against Texas Tech star Darrion Williams, Condon has to be a better defensive player in space against Auburn. The Tigers are stacked with versatile talents at 6-7 or taller who are comfortable on the perimeter and in the post. Like Texas Tech, they will try to draw Condon outside then attempt to attack him off the dribble to get to the rim and score. Williams was excellent whenever Condon ended up in those scenarios, and Florida has a fleet of offensive options. The Gators don’t need every player on their roster to score 15 points, but they will need 6-11 Condon to play excellent defense to advance to the title game.

Potential fatal flaw: A strength could also be Florida’s potential flaw: its comfort level in adversity.

The Gators often execute when down — they overcame a four-minute scoring drought in the second half of their second-round win over UConn and a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight — but those scenarios are dicier in the Final Four. They know they can catch any opponent, which is riskier at this stage than in December against North Carolina (allowed the Tar Heels to take the lead after being up 17 points) or in January against South Carolina (overcame a 14-point second-half deficit to win by one point).

Does Florida have an answer to Johni Broome? I don’t think any team in America has an answer for Broome — a top contender for every national player of the year award — but Florida is equipped to be assertive against him, which is the best opponents can do against a player of his caliber. The Gators have multiple players they can send to aggressively defend the 6-10 Broome without concern that one player’s foul trouble will ruin their shot at victory: Condon (6-11), Thomas Haugh (6-9), Rueben Chinyelu (6-10) and Micah Handlogten (7-1) are all options. Even if Auburn forces Florida to switch a lot of matchups and a Gator guard ends up on Broome, it won’t be a terrible mismatch.

Florida will win if: The Gators play the way they have for the past month.

They have made 58% of their shots inside the arc and 38% of their 3-point attempts since March. They have also had the best offense in America over that stretch. They know how to pummel opponents and can do it from every spot on the floor. And they have a unique combination of experience and talent.

Walter Clayton Jr. is an AP first team All-American. Alijah Martin is participating in his second Final Four in three years. Will Richard is one of six upperclassmen on the team. Plus, they have length that few teams can match and are 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. — Myron Medcalf


How Auburn reached the Final Four:

What we’ve learned about Auburn in March: A 1-3 stretch entering the NCAA tournament called Auburn’s ceiling into question, but those three losses came against Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M — and we have since learned that this is still the same team that lost one game between Dec. 4 and March 4 behind the leadership of Johni Broome.

Yes, Alabama State had a brief lead over the Tigers in the first round, but the Tigers ultimately won by 20. They went on to beat a good Creighton team by 12 in the second round and hold Michigan standout Danny Wolf scoreless for the final 13 minutes of their Sweet 16 win. Then they overcame Broome’s midgame injury to hand Michigan State its first NCAA tournament loss to an SEC team under Tom Izzo.

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